UFC 245 - Night of Champions Preview & Predictions
When is UFC 245? Sunday 15th December, 2019 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 245? T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada
What channel is UFC 245 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 245? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ which can you sign up to here!
Are tickets still available for UFC 245? https://www.ufc.com/tickets
Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington
Colby Covington finally gets his shot at the real welterweight gold which is proudly held by Kamaru Usman. The champion makes his first defence with a huge chip on his shoulder as he is hell-bent in muzzling the controversial contender.
Usman also sits proudly on the longest active win streak in the welterweight division with 10. He mauled through the division grinding out decisions and after outpointing Demian Maia and Rafael dos Anjos he eventually earned his title shot against Tyron Woodley. This was expected to be the toughest fight of his career, but he put on a clinic and completely dominated Woodley with his pace and wrestling.
Covington is cut from the same cloth – talent wise. He carved his way through the division with the same style – overwhelming opponents with his phenomenal cardio. He outpointed Demian Maia and Rafael dos Anjos before Usman did and, after his dismantling of the ferocious striker and veteran Robbie Lawler, he left no doubt that he is the man for Usman’s first defence.
PREDICTION
On paper, this is the most similar match-up we have seen for a title fight. They share the same record, similar skillset, similar age, similar stature and, furthermore, similar striking and grappling stats. Their biggest weapons are their wrestling and gas tank. They could wrestle for days but they won’t be able to keep each other down so their stand-up could make the difference.
Their striking stats are similar, but the differences are that Covington is more comfortable offloading on the feet whereas most of Usman’s strikes come from top position on the ground. Usman however, has more power in his hands and will have a four-inch reach advantage so he could easily catch Covington pressing forward.
The only predictions that are safe to make is that neither fighter will tire, and it will be an incredibly tight contest likely to go to a decision. Neither fighter will out-wrestle each other but they are likely to clinch up where Usman will have the power advantage, but Covington will be more dangerous with combinations and elbows exiting the clinch.
So, this fight could go either way but the deciding factor may come down to Usman’s emotion. Covington is a wind-up merchant and has got under Usman’s skin so it will be interesting to see how he performs. We feel Usman has an extra gear but needs to put on an ice-cold and clinical performance to break Covington’s streak
Winner: Usman via Decision
Max Holloway vs Alexander Volkanovski
Arguably the best featherweight of time, Max Holloway makes the fourth defence of his title against Alexander Volkanovski, who could provide the Hawaiian his toughest test in the division.
Holloway lost for the first time in nearly six years back in April when he stepped up to lightweight to take on Dustin Poirier for the interim title. Poirier deservedly snapped the 13-fight win streak, but Holloway dusted himself off and moved back down to featherweight where he outclassed another legend in Frankie Edgar to defend his belt for the third time.
In the UFC the contenders keep on coming and now it is Volkanovski's turn with a 17 fight win streak behind him, including nine knockouts and three submissions. The stocky Aussie has looked exceptional, but it was his last two fights that caught everyone’s attention. He knocked out Chad Mendes in the second round and then took on the great Jose Aldo and earned an extremely impressive unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
Defending the title is always harder than challenging for it. Holloway has proven himself time and time again and this is just another fight for him but the motivation for a challenger like Volkanovski couldn’t be higher.
Holloway is expected to control the fight with his striking as usual. His movement and manipulation of reach is masterful but interestingly he will be giving up two and a half inches in reach to Volkanovski despite being five inches taller than him.
This doesn’t mean Volkanovski will win the stand-up exchanges, but he can counter if Holloway gets sloppy and has the power to put the champion away. The Aussie will be one of the strongest fighters Holloway will face and he is so well-rounded with his grappling that he will constantly be a threat.
This will be a very tough fight for Holloway but if he can avoid the takedown and the clinches, he has the skill to punish Volkanovski for five rounds. However, if he is not fully focused, expect an upset.
Winner: Holloway via Decision
Amanda Nunes vs Germaine de Randamie
The greatest female fighter of all time is back to defend her bantamweight crown in a fight that is going in under the radar as the challenger Germaine de Randamie is the only bantamweight striker on her level right now.
Nunes’ run has been nothing short of sensational. She boasts the longest female winning streak ever in the UFC and is finishing the best fighters for fun. The names in her streak say it all: Sara McMann (sub), Valentina Shevchenko (dec), Miesha Tate (sub), Ronda Rousey (TKO), Shevchenko 2 (dec), Raquel Pennington (TKO), Cris Cyborg (KO) and she is coming of a sublime head kick knockout over Holly Holm.
De Randamie does not have the resume of Nunes but she is an unbeaten and legendary kickboxer. She has had some controversial bouts, but she is on a five-fight winning streak including a win over Holm to earn the vacant featherweight title and her striking skills are undeniable. Her last loss was also at the hands of Nunes who schooled her, finishing her on the ground with strikes. However, that was over six years ago and both are different fighters now.
PREDICTION
In their fight, Nunes worked hard to take De Randamie down but once she did, she got full mount and rained down punches and elbows until the referee put a stop to the fight. We have not seen Nunes’ grappling skills recently as her striking has become so devastating and powerful that she has just relied on knocking her opponents out.
It is this confidence that should make this fight a spectacle. She will look for another finish, but she cannot forget De Randamie’s credentials. ‘The Iron Lady’ is a better, technical striker than Nunes and she will also have a slight reach advantage.
If Nunes does not respect the skills of de Randamie, ‘The Lioness’ could easily face an upset. That said, if the fight does not go her way, she has the grappling in her arsenal and the power to change the fight in an instant.
Winner: Nunes via Decision
Marlon Moraes vs Jose Aldo
Two of the most exciting Brazilian fighters in the UFC square-off as Marlon Moraes welcomes the legend, Jose Aldo to the bantamweight division.
Moraes earned his first UFC title shot after dispatching Aljamain Sterling, Jimmie Rivera and Raphael Assuncao but he lost with a frustrating performance. He took on the flyweight champion Henry Cejudo and started well, lighting Cejudo up on the feet, but gassed early on which opened the door to a TKO finish and Cejudo becoming the two-division champion.
The announcement of Aldo dropping to bantamweight is still a surprise. The featherweight king utterly depleted himself to make the 145 lb mark and somehow plans to cut to 135 lbs. This decision came after losing a decision to Alexander Volkanovski (who takes on Max Holloway on the card) but it would have made more sense to move up to lightweight due to his age and the amount of mouth-watering match-ups available.
PREDICTION
This is all about Aldo’s weight cut. If he comes in healthy and energized, we can expect fireworks and a violent display. If he struggles and is dehydrated like TJ Dillashaw was when he dropped to flyweight, we can still expect fireworks but they will come from Moraes who is as explosive as it gets at bantamweight.
This will be a a technical and brutal war on the feet and neither of them can afford to absorb many shots as they are so powerful. If Aldo is healthy, his size and power may be too much for Moraes but if not, Aldo will be getting a taste of his own medicine.
Winner: Moraes via KO/TKO
Petr Yan vs Urijah Faber
Urijah ‘The California Kid’ Faber came out of retirement with a bang and now looks to give another young prospect, Petr ‘No Mercy’ Yan a lesson in what it takes to compete at the highest level in the UFC.
Yan is only 26 years old and is one of the biggest prospects in the UFC. He is incredibly well-rounded and has looked exceptional in his five UFC fights. He is coming off two dominant decisions over John Dodson and Jimmie Rivera to extend his winning streak to eight.
Ricky Simon was also riding an eight-fight winning streak and flying high in the division which made Faber’s comeback match-up surprising. However, ‘The California Kid’ shocked everybody in smoking the young gun in the first round.
PREDICTION
This is a great match-up for Yan who has got the big name he deserves. Faber’s name is also carrying extra hype off the back of that win but let’s not forget, Faber is 40 years old and his last knockout before Simon was nearly 13 years ago.
It was a great performance from Faber, and he was a pioneer of the lighter weight classes but Yan is the new breed now. Despite the knockout, Faber will prefer to fight Yan on the ground, but the Russian has great takedown defence and his striking arsenal should make the difference. He has the speed and power to stun Faber and he will show no mercy in finishing the legend.
Winner: Yan via KO/TKO
Striking and grappling stats sourced via FightMetric.