UFC Fight Night 164 - Sao Paulo Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 164? Saturday 16th November, 2019 - 23:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 164? Ginasio do Ibirapuera, Sao Paulo, Brazil
What channel is UFC Fight Night 164? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 164? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ which can you sign up to here!
Are tickets still available for UFC Fight Night 164? https://www.ufc.com/tickets
Jan Blachowicz vs Jacare Souza
Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza looks to make a splash in the light heavyweight division and has no time to waste as he is welcomed by the #6 ranked Jan Blachowicz.
Blachowicz gave the best response possible after suffering a brutal TKO loss to Thiago Santos back in February this year which snapped a four-fight winning streak. He welcomed another former middleweight, Luke Rockhold, to the division and smoked the former champion in the second round.
Jacare just will not give up hopes of winning a UFC belt. He has been on the verge of a title shot for years, especially after finishes over the likes of Vitor Belfort, Tim Boetsch, Derek Brunson and Chris Weidman, but he has come up short against Robert Whittaker, Kelvin Gastelum and Jack Hermansson who he lost a one-sided decision to in his last fight, which has sparked the move up to 205 lbs.
PREDICTION
Jacare at light heavyweight is a fascinating prospect but the decision may have come too late in his career. However, despite being 39 years old, he is still a weapon with some of the most dangerous ground skills in the sport and improved knockout power on the feet.
That said, this is not a great match-up for him. Blachowicz has the grappling skills and experience to avoid the submission threat and will have the size, power, technique and importantly, a six-inch reach advantage which will only become more potent as Jacare begins to tire.
Winner: Blachowicz via Decision
Shogun Rua vs Paul Craig
Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua is back to grace the octagon and was scheduled to face fellow vet Sam Alvey but after breaking his hand, Scotsman Paul Craig has stepped up to replace him and fight the legend.
Shogun is a warrior and he is still slugging it out with the best 15 years after knocking out monsters in Pride. Anthony Smith brutally snapped a three-fight winning streak with elbows but that winning streak included a decision over current top contender Corey Anderson, as well as a TKO over Gian Villante. Shogun quickly resumed putting people to sleep after his loss to Smith and comes off a brilliant TKO win over Tyson Pedro.
Craig has stepped up and will attempt to collect the biggest scalp of his career. Regardless of the result, we will be in for a cracker as Craig is never involved in a boring fight. He is 4-4 in his UFC career and has never gone to a decision in his 16 fights. He has fought three times already this year, firstly he submitted Kennedy Nzechukwu but then got starched by Alonzo Menifield but he is coming of his 11th career submission which was a rear-naked choke over Vinicius Moreira.
PREDICTION
Despite Craig being a completely different fighter to Alvey, Shogun is unlikely to alter his preparations too much as he will hunt the knockout as usual. This is a good match-up for him as Craig’s only real threat will be on the ground, but Shogun is a very experienced jiu-jitsu black belt.
All the difference will come on the feet where Shogun is a different class. Shogun is easily hit but Craig does not quite have the technique and combinations to put him away and Shogun is likely to pierce the guard and land on the chin until the Scotsman falls.
Winner: Shogun via KO/TKO
Charles Oliveira vs Jared Gordon
It is about time Charles Oliveira met a big name again but he is just happy somebody has stepped up to be fight him on his home patch in Sao Paulo and that man is Jared Gordon.
Oliveira is 15-8 (1) in the UFC and is on a blistering five-fight winning streak. He submitted Clay Guida, Christos Giagos, Jim Miller and David Teymur to top up his UFC submission record to 13 and is coming off a brilliant TKO over Nik Lentz in their rematch. If Oliveira puts Gordon away, surely a top 10 ranked lightweight awaits.
Gordon is coming off a decent unanimous decision win over Dan Moret to prevent a three-fight skid. After winning his first two UFC fights, he met two beastly Brazilians - Carlos Diego Ferreira and Joaquim Silva - who both ruthlessly finished him but now he is ready and hungry to string some wins together.
PREDICTION
Gordon will be aggressive and look to force the pressure on Oliveira with his usual high output of strikes but will have to use combinations to negate the six-inch reach advantage. Gordon also likes to mix in takedowns but he will surely try and avoid the submission threat, which should force a stand-up battle.
Oliveira’s striking is underrated and at lightweight he is a lot more powerful and combine that with the reach advantage, he should get the better of Gordon and test the damaged chin to set up another knockout finish.
Winner: Oliveira via KO/TKO
Antonio Arroyo vs Andre Muniz
Two Brazilian debutants and graduates of Dana White’s Contender Series set out to start their UFC journeys with a bang as Antonio Arroyo and Andre Muniz collide.
After losing the second fight of his career against Herdem Alacabek for the Legacy Fighting Alliance, Arroyo has notched up five wins including two on Dana White’s Contender Series. He is coming off a unanimous decision over Diego Henrique da Silva back in August 2018 and followed that up with a second-round submission over Stephen Regman back in July.
Muniz is also coming off a decision and submission on the series; firstly a decision over Bruno Assis and then a submission over Taylor Johnson to extend his winning streak to four. This was in response to getting knocked out by Azamat Murzakanov but that is his only loss in 13 outings.
PREDICTION
These guys have only gone to three decisions in their combined 33 fights and they are dangerous on the feet and on the ground. Muniz' main strengths lie in his grappling as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and Arroyo is a dangerous southpaw striker but they are skilled everywhere.
The finishing stats suggest an Arroyo knockout or a Muniz submission is most likely so it may come down to the strength of Muniz’ chin and strengths of Arroyo’s grappling, which is much better, so he gets the nod although this could go either way.
Winner: Arroyo via KO/TKO
Markus Perez vs Wellington Turman
Sao Paulo’s own Markus Perez was scheduled to fight Jack Marshman but the Welshman has had to withdraw, leaving the door open for fellow Brazilian Wellington Turman, who is desperate for a UFC win.
The former software developer is coming off a brilliant anaconda choke over Anthony Hernandez to bring his UFC record to 2-2. Perez arrived in the UFC with a perfect 9-0 record and fresh off a submission over Ian Heinisch to earn the Legacy Fighting Alliance middleweight title. His only losses are decisions to Eryk Anders and Andrew Sanchez and is clearly a talent and on the cusp of showing his full potential.
Wellington Turman also arrived in the UFC with high expectations. He was riding a four-fight winning streak with only two losses to his name. However, Karl Roberson was the man assigned to show him the standard of the UFC and although he lost, he took Roberson to a split decision to prove his worth.
PREDICTION
Both guys are super tough and dangerous everywhere. That said, Turman will prefer to grapple and get the fight to the floor and Perez will prefer to stand and trade. Expect this fight to have a bit of everything from violent exchanges on the feet to clinches and takedowns. This promises to be a fiercely contested scrap but Perez just gets the nod, especially fighting in his home town with a full training camp.
Winner: Perez via Decision
Striking and grappling stats sourced via FightMetric.