Can Leicester Really Clinch The Title?

With the most unpredictable season in full swing, I crunch the numbers to find out exactly what is required to win the English Premier League.

Table showing previous winners and points tallies since the league changed to the 20 team format in 1995:

Back in December, Arsene Wenger claimed that the league could be won this year with the lowest points total in the history of the premiership. Fast forward into February with 4 teams realistically in the hunt, Mr Wenger could easily be right. Leicester, Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester City are battling it out and with only 13 games left, I take a look back at previous seasons to see how many points will be required for Leicester to be crowned champions of the 2015/2016 season.

So with 65% of the season gone, Leicester are 5 points clear at the top of the table on 53 points. Now since 1995, there has only ever been one occasion after 25 games played, where the leader has had fewer points. This was Arsenal during the 2002/03 season who had accumulated 52 points. However it was Manchester United on 49, that ended up winning the league as a result of a very strong finish winning 15 of their last 18 games.

So what does that mean in terms of the title race?

If Leicester keep going at their present rate, they will finish on 81 points (based on their average points per game). There have only been 5 occasions where the league winners (Manchester United x4 and Arsenal) have finished on fewer than 81 points (illustrated in the table below). This means after a start like this season, every champion has powered over the finish line winning the majority of their remaining games (apart from the 1996/1997 season where Manchester United finished winning only 6 from their last 12).

So why can’t Leicester finish top?

With the start of the season it is safe to say that a team will have to finish very strongly to clinch the title. However, with all of the cup commitments of the chasing teams, you would have to favour Leicester’s run in as the strains of more game time, travelling and potential injuries may take their toll and derailing their title hopes.
 

So as you can see, Leicester have only 13 games left of the season in comparison to 24-26 games the other teams could potentially play. With this advantage; sitting 5 points clear, surely it is about time they were considered favourites? Leicester were 5000/1 to win the league at the start of the season yet they have only lost 2 games and have obtained a staggering 12 points off the big five so far (Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham) with Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea still to play. Contrast this to the 2 points they picked up from the whole of last season.

The man responsible for this turn around, Claudio Ranieiri has set a target of 79 points for his side to win the title. If correct, this means they require only 8 more wins totaling 22 for the season. Is this possible? Only Manchester United have won the league with fewer wins which was during the 1996/1997 season.

Premiership champions with the fewest wins

However Leicester fans, do not count yourselves out... finishing the season with only 22 wins has been done before and if the Foxes continue their current form, these wins will be easy to come by. However what is more crucial is the fact that they have only suffered 2 losses all season. This loss ratio is crucial to maintaining the lead at the top of the table and is the resilience of champions.

Below is a projected table of how Leicester will finish based on average points per game, goal difference, wins etc so far this season:

Comparison of previous winners based on Leicester’s projected stats:

So how has Claudio Ranieiri converted Leicester into title contenders?

Claudio Ranieiri has opted for the traditional 4-4-2 formation and has utilised his players to play a counter-attacking style of football. Teams turning up to attack with 3 points in mind has played exactly into Mr Ranieiri’s hands. An established back 5 with the likes of N’Golo Kante and Danny Drinkwater turning defence into attack has allowed the likes of Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy to express themselves and capitalize on counter-attacks. Although these tactics are not pretty as the stats below suggest; there is no arguing that they are successful.

Another key to their success has been the fitness of the squad and lack of injuries. Whether this is luck or careful management from their medical staff, Leicester have reaped the rewards of having the 4th fewest number of injures in the league with 15 separate injuries while Manchester City have suffered the most with 40, Tottenham 28 and Arsenal 22. Leicester have also managed to keep 3 of the outstanding players of the league so far in Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez and N’Golo Kante fit and available for every single game so far this season. There is no doubt that the fitness of these players has been pivotal to their success and title aspirations.

Conclusion

Reasons to rule Leicester out as contenders have now dissolved and it is hard to ignore them as favourites considering their points advantage, form and lack of cup distractions. If they continue this form they will finish the season on 81 points. History suggests this will be enough as long as either Tottenham, Arsenal or Manchester City do not pull off an incredible end to the season. To equalLeicester’s projected total; Tottenham and Arsenal require 33 points and City 34. This means they will need to pick up at least 11 wins from their remaining 13 games.

So can they be chased?

Arsenal and City have been rather inconsistent this season highlighting there frailties in defence yet many bookies have either one of them as favourites to capture the league. With their fire power and title winning experience, you simply cannot count them out. The question is; will their focus on the Champions League, FA Cup and League cup (for City) prove too much of a distraction and derail their title hopes?

So do Tottenham have what it takes? Under Pochettino they have been very consistent, boasting the best defensive record in the league and it is clear to see his young team have bought into his philosophy. However they also have cup distractions in the Europa League and FA Cup. Can their squad cope with the amount of fixtures? There have been zero doubts cast over their fitness so far this season but it is crucial for the likes of Harry Kane and Toby Alderweireld to remain fit for them to have any chance in competing for the title.

So, can Leicester win the league?

Keeping the likes of Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez and N’Gole Kante fit is crucial for them in maintaining their form. Although they are in unknown territory competing for the title, they only have 13 games left to concentrate on... it has to be theirs to lose.  Either way, this is shaping up to be one of the most exciting seasons in Premiership history!